Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century by C. Dale Walton

Author:C. Dale Walton [Walton, C. Dale]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: History, Military, General, Political Science, International Relations
ISBN: 9781134244553
Google: Bs1O-h5VgVcC
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2007-06-11T01:15:20+00:00

5 Strategizing without a license

The non-state challenge to world order

Heretofore in this assessment of the future of international politics, the discussion devoted to actors below the great power level has been very limited, as the sheer number of political entities active in Eastern Eurasia is so large that addressing even a substantial percentage of them would overwhelm the analysis. However, in order to assess the future of the great power system, one must consider the broad events shaping the international political environment, and one of the most important features of today’s political landscape is the ongoing struggle against Islamist extremism that Washington refers to as the Global War on Terrorism or, more recently, the Long War.133 Beyond its obvious significance for the near- and medium-term future, the GWOT also foreshadows one of the more difficult challenges that the United States and other great powers likely will face in the future: the continuing development of a variety of military and civilian technologies and the dispersal of those technologies will make it increasingly likely that sub-state actors will be able to both attract followers and inflict grave damage even on militarily very powerful countries.

Fortunately, there presently are no Islamist great powers, and there is no prospect that any will emerge in the foreseeable future (although one can contrive distressingly plausible scenarios in which the Pakistani state and its nuclear arsenal fall into Islamist hands), and thus the issue at hand is only indirectly related to great power politics. Islamist terrorism does, however, present an alarmingly violent challenge to international order and it presently is the strategic obsession of the United States – and likely will remain so at least for several more years, thus distracting Washington from the great power struggles described herein – and thus is clearly relevant to the this work. In addition, Islamists are a massive, and apparently increasing, menace to Russia’s domestic tranquility,134 and also present a not-inconsiderable threat to EU countries and the PRC.

It would, however, be shortsighted to assume that Islamist terrorist groups will be the only significant terror organizations of the twenty-first century. Terrorism is a tactic that can be adopted by the adherents of almost any ideology, and for reasons discussed below there is every reason to believe that global Islamist organizations such as al Qaeda represent the vanguard of a powerful development driven by mass-communications technology and other factors: the emergence of international groups, controlled by strategic entrepreneurs who will be able to present a substantial threat to world order and the security of individual states.135 Some discussion of international terrorism and the danger that it may present even to great powers, thus, is warranted, as “strategic entrepreneurs” likely will play a significant role in the international political system, and how the great powers choose to address the challenges presented by substate actors will shape relationships within the great power “club.”

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